McNair never topped 200 yards after age 29 while averaging over 400 before that point. Young’s numbers were more the result of career-long accumulation than early career spikes. Cunningham rushed for 942 yards in his age 27 season he topped 300 yards just once again in a career that saw him play to age 38. Wilson has topped 400 rushing yards once in his last five seasons after hitting the number five of his first six. Newton’s career was effectively over at age 29. Historic quarterbacks who top the rushing leaderboards are a mixed bag: Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Randall Cunningham, Steven Young, Steven McNair, and Donovan McNabb are the most representative sample. But the long-term outcome of rushing quarterbacks is an open question, given they are a limited and newer phenomenon. The difference in running back and quarterback timelines is an often-cited argument in Richardson’s direction. The second question is about long-term production from rushing quarterbacks. But one elite back at the top of the curve can create positional value similar to Travis Kelce-a cheat code who swings leagues. Any player can find some level of replacement production from multiple sources. If Robinson reaches a top-level scrimmage opportunity share as his skillset and draft capital suggest, the chance for the running back landscape to mirror what has happened with the tight end position exists. The leaguewide landscape is changing, with quarterbacks who contribute meaningful team rushing production and three-headed committee backfields on the horizon. Efficiency meeting volume is the holy grail for fantasy production. Five of those backs will enter 2023 at age 26 or older. In 2012, 17 running backs saw over 20 scrimmage touches per game. For newer dynasty players, a time when a quarterback was not the consensus top selection in startups can be crazy to comprehend.īut outside of that recent history, two factors could push Robinson long-term.įirst, the shift in running back usage has been quick and drastic. Not long ago (2020), the first round of startup drafts was a mix between heavy-volume running backs and the quarterbacks currently dominating the top of the boards. The recent influx of young, dual-threat quarterbacks and the aging of a golden crop of running backs has accelerated the divide between the quarterback and running back values. It is easy to be a prisoner of the moment. Anthony Richardson’s top outcome makes him a more valuable asset than Robinson. In Superflex, there is an argument for positional value. A combination of years of hype and the late rise of the primary challenger has locked in consensus. Tier Oneīetween Superflex and 1QB formats, Robinson will go number one in almost every rookie draft. Rankings should be more individualized to roster construction and personal risk tolerance on prospects. Please note this is a cluster, not necessarily a ranking. The post-draft waiver run is among the most important in the dynasty calendar when late rookie picks can be added for “free.” It also kicks off a resulting secondary waiver when league-mates are forced to make cuts, and ambiguous depth charts can create values.įor more in-depth coverage of the 2023 rookie class, check out the Footballguys Rookie Guide. It will bring you well past most rookie draft scenarios, preparing you to attack in the draft and the essential subsequent waiver run. This piece is a tiered discussion of the rookie class as a whole. In an actual draft, you have conflicting league interests between competition windows, league mates flush with draft capital who waited months to cash it in, or other players who want out of the draft altogether. Mock drafts are great, but they need more nuance. After completing many dynasty rookie drafts, an exact number that will remain between my accountant and me, the landscape has gained clarity.
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